Unlocking Nigeria's Agricultural Export Potential: Macroeconomic Determinants, Environmental Sustainability, and Gender Dynamics Under the SDG Framework

Abstract

Background: Agricultural export capability is vital for developing economies, yet Nigeria's shift toward petroleum has left its rural sector structurally underdeveloped and vulnerable.
Aims: This study investigates the key determinants of Nigeria's agricultural export performance, focusing on agricultural land availability, foreign direct investment, GDP growth, domestic crop production, exchange rates, and female agricultural employment.
Methods: Utilizing annual time-series data from 1990 to 2023, the study evaluates short- and long-run dynamics using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model combined with the Residual Augmented Least Squares–Engle Granger (RALS-EG) cointegration approach.
Result: In the long run, agricultural land expansion, FDI inflows, and exchange rates positively impact export volumes, whereas GDP growth, domestic crop production indices, and female agricultural employment show negative effects. In the short run, land use and crop production enhance exports, while exchange rate volatility and GDP growth exert negative pressures. The findings reveal that output increases do not automatically translate to export growth due to domestic food demand and supply chain inefficiencies, while structural and resource barriers hinder the export contribution of female labor.
Conclusion: Policymakers must look beyond purely output-driven initiatives. Achieving sustainable agricultural export growth requires targeted investments in post-harvest rural infrastructure, macroeconomic and financial stability, and gender-equitable access to agricultural resources and extension services.